War Drums Rise: Iran Targets U.S. Bases

View of the American flag through a sniper scope

America is staring at another Middle East showdown—this time with Iran openly warning it could target U.S. bases as the Trump administration moves ships and firepower into position while still talking peace.

Quick Take

U.S. negotiations with Iran resumed in early February 2026 in Muscat, Oman, even as Washington continues a major regional military buildup.
The current crisis traces back to April 2025 outreach from President Trump and the June 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites followed by a ceasefire.
U.S. officials reportedly gave Iran a short window to submit a detailed proposal, while some advisers predict military action if talks fail.
Iran’s leadership has rejected key U.S. demands on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles, leaving core disputes unresolved.
A drone incident near a U.S. carrier underscores how easily miscalculation could ignite a wider conflict.

Diplomacy Continues While the Pentagon Signals Readiness

U.S. talks with Iran picked up again in early February 2026, with both sides acknowledging meetings in Muscat, Oman focused on nuclear issues. President Trump has framed the outreach as a push for a nuclear agreement backed by credible leverage. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also said the U.S. military is “getting ready” if negotiations collapse, reflecting a posture designed to deter Iran and reassure regional partners.

That combination—negotiators at the table while assets move into theater—creates the central uncertainty: whether the buildup is mainly pressure or the opening phase of a larger campaign. Reporting cited in the research describes the possibility of a “massive weeks-long war” beginning “very soon” if the diplomatic track fails. The administration’s messaging emphasizes conditionality: Iran gets an off-ramp through verifiable limits, or faces escalating consequences.

How the 2025 Escalation Set the Table for 2026

The current standoff did not come out of nowhere. In April 2025, President Trump initiated contact with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and set a 60-day deadline aimed at reaching a nuclear peace agreement. When negotiations stalled, Israel launched surprise attacks on June 13, 2025 targeting Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. The fighting developed into a 12-day exchange of strikes that raised alarms across the region.

U.S. involvement escalated on June 21, 2025, when American forces struck three major Iranian nuclear facilities—Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—using B-2 Spirit bombers with bunker-buster munitions and Tomahawk cruise missiles. President Trump declared a ceasefire on June 23–24, 2025, and the research indicates it has held. Afterward, Iran signaled it would reassess cooperation with the IAEA, keeping the verification dispute alive.

Verification, Enrichment, and Missiles: The Core Sticking Points

The most persistent fault line remains Iran’s nuclear program and what “a deal” would actually require. In November 2025, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution demanding full access to Iranian nuclear sites and clarification of uranium stockpiles. Iran warned it would respond reciprocally if pressure continued. By early 2026, the research indicates the U.S. position still centers on limits that Iran’s leadership has resisted.

Supreme Leader Khamenei has rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment and to limit Iran’s ballistic missile program, according to the research summary. That matters because enrichment capability and delivery systems are the levers that turn a nuclear program into a strategic threat. Without verifiable access and credible constraints, any agreement risks becoming a political paper shield—an outcome many conservatives remember from prior eras of diplomacy that promised stability but produced leverage for adversaries.

Flashpoints: Drone Incident, Base Threats, and the Risk of Miscalculation

Events at sea show how quickly “talks” can coexist with kinetic escalation. On February 3, 2026, the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone that approached a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea even as diplomacy continued. The same period featured public military signaling, including Trump’s warning that the “next attack will be far worse” if Iran refuses a deal, paired with visible naval deployments described as a large armada.

Iran has also issued direct counter-threats. Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that if negotiations collapse, Iran would target American bases in the region, stating that U.S. bases in nearby countries are within reach. Qatar and other regional actors have cautioned that escalation could have severe consequences for the Middle East, underscoring how a U.S.–Iran clash would not stay neatly contained. The research does not quantify troop levels or specific basing changes, so the precise scale of near-term risk remains difficult to measure.